Monday Night Showdown – UPDATED
Jaylen Samuels has been ruled INACTIVE for tonight’s game – pivot accordingly! We see a small uptick in points for JuJu and big value in Snell Jr. Here is our updated lineup
Dolphins @ Steelers (-14.5) – MNF
Holy cow could this game have any more potential to be a complete disaster? The Steelers are favored by two touchdowns at home against the Dolphins who are managing to average a measly 10.5 points per game. The Steelers defense has played solid this year and will be jumping at the chance to get to Dolphins QB Fitzpatrick early and often. This is shaping up as a game where the Steelers get an early lead and just pound the rock on the ground to kill the clock, though they will still be scoring touchdowns along the way.
Steelers Defense Potential
Showdown lineups have started trending towards a higher usage in DST (thanks Patriots) and even a significant % of Captain usage (Patriots 40% yesterday) and the Steelers are in a position tonight to gain a ton of points – but at a FLEX price of $8k, will it be enough to justify using them at Captain?
To answer that, I want to look at the potential that James Conner has tonight. He should get 15+ looks on the ground and 5+ catches in the game tonight which gives him potential for 150+ total yards and he always has 2 TD upside. Let’s say he goes for 120 total yards with 5 catches and a TD – that puts us at 23 DraftKings points – 34.5 in the CPT spot. The Steelers would certainly need to get a DST Touchdown to match that kind of production, and the additional money saved by using them as the Captain would allow us to move Boswell up to McDonald – I’m not sure that McDonald has a huge advantage on Boswell, and while the D may be productive tonight – I don’t think they will out perform Conner.
I think Conner will be the highest owned player in the slate and be close to the highest Captain % along with Steelers D. The contest we are playing in is very small with only 28 lineups, so we don’t want to be too risky. I think that a Steelers game script that has a lot of pounding the ground is the most likely so I want to stack Samuels with Conner, use Rudolph to correlate with both as they do well in the passing game, play the Defense because it’s the Dolphins and then I need to play one Miami guy so I’m going with Ballage. He will rely on finding pay dirt in order to help us out here, but that is true for any of the Dolphins players and Ballage is +200 as an anytime TD scorer which is tied for the Dolphins favorite with Walton (though he’s much cheaper than Walton).
Notice there is no JuJu… Total pass yards for Rudolph props are set at 239 yards, and with Conner, Samuels and McDonald, I just don’t think there is enough of an upside for JuJu unless he can find the endzone twice (which is totally possible against this Dolphins defense, but I don’t think the game script favors the Steelers throwing a lot).