10/24 TNF Pick Six
Welcome to Thursday Night Football Pick Six! This two part weekly article will cover the DraftKings Thursday Night Football Showdown as well as my favorite choices for a 6-leg NFL Parlay that includes the TNF game.
Redskins @ Vikings Showdown
Remember when I said that we finally had a Monday Night football game that wasn’t going to be a snooze fest? Well, I was right… the Patriots defense put on a SHOW. Sam Darnold was “seeing ghosts” and we were seeing dollar signs
The Patriots started us off on the right foot and tonight we look to continue that success by banking on a similar strategy.
The Vikings are 5-2 on the season and averaging almost 28 points per game. Their offensive weapons range from steady (Adam Thielen OUT) to explosive (Diggs), and Dalvin Cook cleans up the rest. Those 3 players account for 75% of all Vikings touchdowns. They are priced accordingly and we are going to have to decide who will give us the best value tonight.
Diggs has really stepped up his game and is averaging over 18 yards per reception. Thielen is not far behind (14.5YPR) and seems to find the end-zone more consistently. With Thielen sitting this game out for a hamstring injury, his market share needs to go somewhere. That means Diggs is about to have a day and Olabisi Johnson is also going to have an opportunity to be more involved. Rudolph will be there, just like he has been all season.
Dalvin Cook is the rushing threat for Minnesota. He averages over 100 yards rushing per game and over 5 yards per attempt on the season. He has 8 touchdowns and gets some involvement in the receiving game as well. He should be a lock for tonight.
The Redskins haven’t had the worst season so far (looking at you Miami) but they are 1-6 and average a measly 12.9 points per game. With Chris Thompson ruled out and AP Questionable…… I’m trying to find some positives for this team but there really just isn’t any outside of Terry McLaurin – Over 17 yards per reception and 5 TD’s on the season. The only downside is his volume, averaging 4 receptions per game.
HOWEVER – Wendell Smallwood is in a position to open a can of whoop-ass in terms of DraftKings points. If AP is not ready to go, or is limited – that leaves Smallwood ($1800 – DK) taking reps as a starter. With his small price tag, it won’t take much for it to payoff, especially if he is involved in the passing game. I expect him to be HIGHLY owned.
I expect this game to go quickly in the favor of the Vikings. They are 16 point favorites at home, and I think that’s generous for the Redskins. Washington can’t generate anything on the ground (just two rushing TD’s all season) and are up against a Vikings D that has only allowed 1 rushing TD all season and a measly 90 yards rushing per game against. AP being out only furthers this narrative. Vikings will go up early and for good, and the Redskins will need to throw the ball. A. Lot. Does this script remind you of anything?
Oh that’s right! Exactly what I said about Darnold before he got lit up for 4 INT’s and a fumble. The Vikings are not as good at defending the pass as the Patriots and, though just barely, the Redskins are better producing through the air than the Jets. That means I don’t expect a shutout, but with an expected total of 13 for the ‘Skins – we might not get a whole lot of action. I think if you give Keenum enough attempts (which he will have), he can find the end zone at least once – which means McLaurin will be a great option.
I do believe the Vikings will run the game and I do believe going with 5 Vikings players is the right move here. Defense included.
We will be entering our lineup into a Single Entry contest with 388 total entries. First place pays out 50X and min. cash is 2X.
Our captain options will boil down to
2. Big play potential
3. Not a Redskins player
This leaves us with Cook, Diggs, and Cousins. As mentioned above, I think the Vikings will get things started quickly and never turn back. That means a lot of rushing plays to keep the clock moving and end this blowout as quickly as possible. I think Cook will outperform Diggs in terms of DK points, but the extra $1000 in salary we gain from having Diggs as CPT instead of Cook and will prove valuable.
Can we trust Diggs in this situation? Absolutely.
That extra $1000 we saved is going to allow us to upgrade Dan Bailey to Kyle Rudolph. Which leaves us with the lineup below. We cover the Vikings from every angle (except QB) and Smallwood gives us the best value on the Redskins.
Drink Of The Game!
Breckenridge Brewery Christmas Ale – Cheers!